CAS Exam 8 Seminar
T
he CAS Exam 8 seminar is a five day course (8:00 am to 5:00 pm) taught by Mr Sholom Feldblum, FCAS, FSA, CFA, CPCU (3 days) and Dr Krzysztof M. Ostaszewski, PhD, FSA, CFA (2 days). Tuition for seminar is $485, payable to New England Actuarial Seminars.Mr. Feldblum will teach the first three days and Prof. Ostaszewski will teach the remaining 2 days.
The Exam 8 syllabus was completely revised in 2000, reflecting the new emphasis on financial engineering. Mastering chapters 9 through 14 of Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, the valuation of bonds with embedded options in the Fabozzi Handbook, or the papers by Butsic, Cummins, Black, Miller, and Stulz requires keen understanding of no-arbitrage pricing and risk neutral valuation.
The Exam 8 seminar is structured to meet the difficulty of this exam. The instructors are experts in financial analysis and investment theory, with extensive experience in teaching actuarial seminars. Mr Feldblum has taught over 115 actuarial seminars during the past eleven years, as well as the advanced DFA seminars for the CAS. Prof Krzys Ostaszewski is an outstanding research actuary, who teaches investment strategy, asset liability management, pension funding, and actuarial mathematics for NEAS and other organizations (SOA Courses 3, 4, 6, and 8). Mr. Feldblum teaches the first three days of the Exam 8 seminar and Dr. Ostaszewski teaches the remaining two days.
NEAS provides extensive study aids for Exam 8, with emphasis on the more difficult readings, such as:
- An extensive set of study aids on options pricing, 475+ pages of practice problems with model solutions, covers Hull’s textbook: forward and futures contracts; forward rate agreements; Treasury bond futures; put call parity; payoff diagrams; spreads; butterflies, straddles, strangles; option deltas; binomial tree pricing; risk-neutral valuation, geometric Brownian motion; Black-Scholes formula; options on indices and currencies; value at risk; the "Greeks"; interest rate swaps; foreign currency swaps; options hedging.
- Embedded Options
covers callable and putable bonds, explaining how to calculate forward rates and value embedded calls and puts. The practice problems and illustrative test questions in the study aid are taken from Fabozzi’s textbooks for the CFA syllabus.
reviews his Solvency Measurement paper, explaining the calculation of risk-based capital using the expected policyholder deficit and the square root approximation for multiple risk elements. Extensive practice problems and model solutions to past CAS exam problems.
- Butsic and the Expected Policyholder Deficit
Valuations and Appraisals covers the statement of principles, the standard of practice, and the Miccolis reading, along with background from the Sturgis paper to answer the likely exam questions.
For optimal exam preparation, participate in the on-line Exam 8 seminar (on the NEAS discussion forums) from its inception in December 2007 through the final week of study in April 2008.
Summaries of the seminar sessions are presented below. Mr. Feldblum teaches sessions 1 – VI; Dr.Ostaszewski teaches sessions VII – X. The material is illustrated with problems from a variety of sources:
- past CAS and SOA exam problems
- practice problems designed by the instructors for the Exam 8 seminar
- past exam problems from 14 years (1992-2005) of CFA Level 2 and Level 3 exams
- exercises from textbooks on options pricing, financial engineering, and portfolio management
Session I: Working with Derivatives
: markets and contracts; margins; settlement; hedging and hedge ratios
- Futures
Forward Contracts : Investment assets versus commodities; forward prices and risk free rates; coupons and dividend yields; future and forward prices; futures on stock indices and currencies; futures on commodities; carrying costsDuration and Futures : forward-rate agreements; Treasury bond futures; cheapest to deliver bonds; hedging strategies using durationOptions Markets: Regulations; commissions, margins; Options Clearing Corporation Option Prices : price bounds; put-call parity; American vs European options; dividend paying stocks and early exercise
Session II: Solvency Monitoring (Butsic); Portfolio Theory; Single and Multi Index Models
put option and the corporate shield; call option held by insurer’s owners; risk-based guarantee fund premium; measurement bias and market value; time-dependence; valuation horizon; covariance and the square root rule; normal and lognormal distributions; level-playing field
- Expected Policyholder Deficit:
EPD and capital requirements: quantifying the EPD; EPD ratio; required capital to achieve specified ratio; risky liabilities vs assets; risk combinations; discrete vs continuous distributions; balance sheet structure of risk correlations; square root formulaCummins on Capital allocation Nakada, Shah, Koyluoglu, and Collignon on P&C RAROC Bodie, Kane, and Marcus appendices: 6A, 8B, 8C : insurance vs investment risk; law of large numbers; pooling vs risk transfer; diversification
Session III: Trading Strategies; Pricing Options
: bull spreads; bear spreads; butterfly spreads; calendar spreads; diagonal spreads; straddles; strips and straps; strangles
- Trading strategies
Binomial tree pricing model : risk-free hedging portfolio; actual vs martingale probabilities; risk-neutral valuation; single step European options; multi-step binomial trees; American options; option deltas; volatilities
Session IV: Stochastic Processes
Markov models and generalized Wiener processes; volatilities and standard deviations; geometric Brownian motion; Ito processes and Ito’s Lemma
- Stochastic processes:
Equity Valuation Models. Balance sheet valuation models (book value, liquidation value, and replacement cost); intrinsic value versus market price; dividend discount models (constant growth and multistage growth models); price-earnings (P/E) ratio and pitfalls of P/E analysis; free cash flow approach; inflation and equity valuation; aggregate market behavior (explaining the past; forecasting the market).
Session V: Black-Scholes; Valuation of Bonds with Embedded Options
: Continuous compounding; force of interest; lognormal distributions; expected rates of return for skewed distributions; empirical volatility; implied volatility; no-arbitrage derivation of Black-Scholes; risk-free valuation perspective
- Black-Scholes
Session VI: The "Greeks"; Valuation and Appraisals; Bond Immunization; Corporate Bond Mortality
Delta hedging; stock puts and portfolio insurance; covered calls; Hull’s stop loss strategy; gamma hedging; theta; vega; double hedging with gamma and vega; rho; relations of call and put options; scenario analysis; implied stock volatility
- Hull on the Greeks:
Miller, Culp, and Neves on uses and abuses of Value at Risk CAS Statement of Principles: cash flows vs accounting entries; statutory vs GAAP earnings; deterministic scenarios vs stochastic modeling; cash flows (company-equityholders vs company-policyholders); expected dividend streams; risk-adjustments; adjusted net worth (market value adjustments vs goodwill); value of existing business and of new business; franchise value of distribution systems; allocation of assets; market value adjustments vs discounted value of future cash flows; lapsation; sensitivity testing; cost of capital; basis of assumptionsThe AAA Standard: assets, considerations, and obligations; contingent events; cash flows: occurrence, amount, and timingRené Stulz on Rethinking Risk Management: the Metallgesellschaft case; the Daimler-Benz case; bankruptcy costs; stakeholder costs; taxes; comparative advantage; risk-taking and capital structure; management incentives; value at risk; cash flow simulations; default probabilitiesMiccolis: [Background: dividend stream, future earnings, and cost of capital; synergism; tax consequences; cash flow valuation] adjusted net worth; statutory vs tax accounting; value of future earnings; reserve runoffs; retention rate; new business; market, industry, company, and timing risks; cost of capital; Miccolis vs ASoP on cost of capital; stochastic modeling; confidence levels; risk modelsAltman on Corporate Bond Mortality: cumulative mortality rates; default rates; construction of the bond mortality table; initial bond rating and age since issue; recovery rates; net spreads
CAS Exam 8 B: ALM, Securitization of Risk, Value at Risk, Fixed-Income Securities, International Diversification; Portfolio Management (Dr Krzysztof M. Ostaszewski)
Session VII.A: Asset Liability Management
Bodie, Kane, and Marcus, chapter 16: Managing Bond Portfolios: interest rate sensitivity; eight rules of duration; convexity; duration and convexity of callable bonds; bond-index funds; immunization; net worth immunization; cash flow matching; dedication; active bond management; horizon analysis; contingent immunization; interest rate swaps; financial engineering; interest rate derivatives
Session VII.B: ALM for Insurers
Investment practices of property-casualty insurers; accounting conventions: book value (statutory), current value, economic value (market); duration gap and the interest rate sensitivity of surplus; working problems with different types of duration gaps; management strategies; duration matching and protective puts
- Norris on Asset/Liability Management Strategies:
Feldblum on Asset-Liability Matching: liability structures; nominal life reserves versus inflation sensitive casualty reserves; upward sloping yield curves; stock prices and inflation; effective duration of common stocks; segmentation of assets, premium inflows, and disintermediation; statutory valuation rates: bonds at amortized values and common stocks at market
Session VIII.A: Portfolio Risk Models in Other Industries (Value at Risk)
Hull, chapter 14: Definition of value at risk. Methods of calculation of VAR: assuming normal distribution and linearity, approximation, simulation, using historical data. Handling of interest rates, principal components analysis.
Session VIII.B: Gorvett on Insurance securitization: development of a new asset class
Insurance securitization and financial risk manage-ment for insurers; evolutionary development of securitization; factors leading to expansion of insurance securitization; securitized products; cat bond offerings; risk of insurance derivatives
Session IXA: Valuation of Bonds; Structure of Interest Rates
: Bodie, Kane, and Marcus, ch 14; Treasuries; corporate bonds; callable bonds; convertible bonds; putable bonds; floating rate bonds; preferred stock; international bonds; reverse floaters; asset-backed bonds; catastrophe bonds; indexed bonds; yield to maturity; yield to call; holding period return; zero-coupon bonds; after tax returns; high yield bonds; bond indentures; default risk
- Bond Prices and Yields
Term Structure of Interest Rates : BK&M, ch 15; forward rates; interest rate uncertainty; expectations hypothesis; liquidity preference; market segmentation; preferred habitat
Session X: International Diversification:
International investments; calculating the return on foreign investments; risk of foreign securities; returns from international diversification; effect of exchange rate risk; evidence on internationally diversified portfolios; techniques for investing internationally (direct investment, American depository receipts, mutual funds); passive and active international investing.